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Turning paper into Gold Bullion at the emerging-world’s central banks…

CENTRAL BANKS are becoming modern-day alchemists, says Christopher K. Potter, principal of Canadian-focused hedge fund Northern Border Capital Management Inc., which he founded in 2002.

India’s big gold purchase late last year was a game-changer, Potter here tells the Gold Report, and more and more central banks will follow suit – he believes – successfully managing to turn the paper money their countries accumulate into Gold Bullion…

The Gold Report: Just after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bought 200 tonnes of gold last November, you wrote an article entitled Game Changer, highlighting previous transactions such as China’s Central Bank 99-tonne purchase gold in ‘02 and Argentina’s 55 tonnes in ‘09. Since no other central bank has stepped forward in the months since India’s announcement, was that really a game changer?

Chris Potter: I think so. For as long as I can remember, gold bears have warned that central bank gold is a massive source of supply that is capable of overwhelming any conceivable demand scenario. They said that this would make it very difficult for the Gold Price to rise significantly. It’s been an easy argument to make because one fifth of all the gold ever mined is sitting in central banks’ vaults.

But what we’ve seen over the last nine years is that argument being steadily dismantled, piece by piece. Year after year, signatories to the Washington Agreement have sold less than their quota of gold. We’ve also seen various central banks add and talk about adding to their gold reserves. Then when the world became aware that the International Monetary Fund – which I think is the third largest holder of gold – was a potential seller of 400 tons, there was all kinds of speculation that this would have a very detrimental effect on the Gold Price.

Well guess what, the opposite happened when the Reserve Bank of India announced that it not only bought 50% of what was for sale but bought it at market prices! All of a sudden people realized that central banks might be net buyers rather than net sellers of gold. This was a big development. We still haven’t heard about who is going to buy the other 200 tonnes but the market no longer seems concerned that a buyer will be found. You mentioned that no other central bank has bought gold since the Reserve Bank of India announcement – well, we don’t know that that is the case. If you were a central bank interested in increasing your gold reserves, you would not likely telegraph to the market that you were doing that until you were finished buying.

TGR: Is the IMF actively trying to sell the other 200 tons?

Chris Potter: They reported that they planned to sell 400 tonnes so I see no reason to believe that they have changed their minds about the remaining 200 tons. It had been rumored that the central bank of China was going to buy the whole piece and that is why the Indian announcement was such a surprise. Perhaps China buys what’s left.

We’ve heard that the Chinese Central Bank has been a consistent buyer of gold over the last several years, but we haven’t heard anything officially. I suspect that they do not want to signal that they have a lot of gold to buy, because that would just drive the price up. If they are negotiating with the IMF for the remaining 200 tonnes, we won’t hear about it until the deal is done.

TGR: Could China just be buying it in such small increments that it might take them a year to buy it but they wouldn’t have to report it?

Chris Potter: I’m pretty sure that the US Federal Reserve is required to report purchases and sales of gold and other assets. I’m not familiar with the reporting requirements in other countries, but I would take any lack of disclosure about Chinese purchases of gold with a large grain of salt. In other words, just because they have not announced that they have been Buying Gold does not mean that they have not been.

TGR: Jon Nadler, Kitco’s senior investment products analyst, suggests that central banks’ acquiring gold is no more than re-balancing their portfolios. It’s part of a natural course of events since their portfolios are growing, and in that case, it shouldn’t affect the price of gold one way or another. What do you think of that view?

Chris Potter: By purchasing 200 tonnes of gold, the Reserve Bank of India increased its gold holdings by 50% – I would hardly call that rebalancing. But what is even more important than the amount of gold that central banks are buying is the realization that they are buying and not selling. This is a brand new idea and completely alters market perception about supply and demand. This kind of change in perception can have a very meaningful impact on price. So no, I do not agree with Jon Nadler’s suggestion.

TGR: So how do you look at it?

Chris Potter: If I were running a central bank and I had the ability to create money at virtually no cost and I could then exchange that costless money for one of the earth’s scarcest resources, why wouldn’t I do that all day long? Why not exchange something that costs me nothing for something that is incredibly rare and incredibly valuable?

TGR: It’s not a central bank’s role to print money for the purpose of Buying Gold, though. Creating more money creates other negative trends in the economy.

Chris Potter: Sure, it’s inflationary. But take the example of India buying 200 tonnes of gold. That’s a very large amount of gold, but relative to the amount of money that they are creating for other purposes, it has a very minor inflationary effect.

TGR: I’ve always had the impression that central banks were held to a higher standard to do what’s best for the economy.

Chris Potter: Well, maybe what they’re doing is best for their economies. If you’re a central bank and you’re observing that around the world vast amounts, unprecedented amounts, of new money is being created, you have to realize that somewhere down the road every one of those currencies is going to take a big hit. So, how do you distinguish you currency and your economy from your neighbors’?

Well, one thing you can do is Buy Gold. So maybe the Reserve Bank of India is being proactive about their economy. They are saying, "Look, we can Buy Gold now for $1000 an ounce and five years from now, when we are all swimming in newly printed money, gold might be $5000 an ounce. We can increase our wealth without inflating our currency to the same extent as other nations." Essentially they are hedging against a decline in their currency and that is good for their economy.

TGR: A lot of financial advisors tell investors they should have assets that include 10% to 15% precious metals as "insurance." Are the central banks looking at this as an insurance policy, too, or in some other way?

Chris Potter: I suppose you could call it an insurance policy and that is the way a lot of people think about gold. But that is not the way I think about it. I view gold simply as a currency whose supply and demand characteristics are vastly superior to other currencies. Perhaps that is a more accurate explanation for why central banks are exchanging their paper for gold.

TGR: Gold’s been trading around $1100 for the past few weeks. There seems to be some resistance at that level. Some gold bugs say gold will be at $2000 before the end of the year. Where do you project as a trend for the physical Gold Price through 2010?

Chris Potter: I have a much stronger view of where the Gold Price will be in two or three years than I do over the next few months. It’s had a good run so I am not surprised that it is taking a breather here. If I had to guess I’d say we’ll see new highs before the end of the year. I just think that the path of least resistance is up because the amount of debt that continues to mount around the world is staggering – a lot of that has to be monetized.

Everyone talks about deleveraging but the US ran a budget deficit of $1.4 trillion or $1.5 trillion last year, and it looks like we’re going to do something similar this year. I think I just read we’re trying to increase the debt ceiling here by $1.5 trillion Dollars to $14 trillion. These numbers would have been unheard of a couple of years ago. I think back to a speech that Bernanke gave in January of 2007, in which he worried that the US budget deficit would approach 9% of GDP by the year 2030.

TGR: Oh, we’re way beyond that already, and 2030 is still 20 years away!

Chris Potter: Absolutely. Last year at $1.5 trillion, our budget deficit was more than 10% of GDP. Bernanke’s great fear about what the budget deficit might do occurred 20 years early and it happened not because of our unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities that he worried about but because of the global financial meltdown. When we layer on the unfunded liability issues we have a really gigantic problem that will be extremely difficult to grow our way out of, despite what Washington tells us. That is why I say that the path of least resistance – the solution to this – is to inflate these liabilities away.

That requires printing money. It requires a lot of new Dollars, a lot of new Renminbi, a lot of new Yen, a lot of new Euros, a lot of new Roubles. I think you’re going to see all of those currencies depreciate against other assets, and probably most against gold. I imagine that will continue this year, but anyone who has been involved in the gold market over the last seven to nine years knows to expect some scary rides up and down.

TGR: You’ve laid out a compelling argument about all governments increasing their money supplies and we’ll have inflation worldwide. How much higher do you think gold can go?

Chris Potter: It’s always difficult to put a number on it, but the inflation-adjusted Gold Price, depending on your assumptions and in which year you start, is somewhere between $2200 and $3100 per ounce. I’ve run a number of different models to see where the Gold Price could go and have come up with anything from $1500 to $3500 an ounce. In the end it’s anyone’s guess as to what the ultimate high will be, but as I said, the path of least resistance seems to be up.

TGR: If you follow the gold patterns, the summer months have historically been relatively low, with prices picking up again for the holiday seasons, particularly in India. Given that more gold is being bought as an investment or as insurance now, do you see that seasonality coming into play over the next two to three years?

Chris Potter: As you point out, more often than not we’ve seen a rise in the Gold Price in October and November, which coincides with the Indian wedding season. I have no particular expertise here, but I’ll guess that that seasonal pattern will continue. Ultimately though it is not a primary driver of the Gold Price If you look at a nine-year price chart, those seasonal moves are just blips.

TGR: Should investors be looking at physical gold, the majors, the juniors? How should they play what you see as upward trends in Gold Prices over the next several years?

Chris Potter: My strategy is to own both physical gold and mining stocks. I focus on the smaller capitalization gold companies, the exploration companies, the early-stage producers just because if you get those right, they have a lot more leverage to a rising price for the metal.

The problem with owning only Gold Mining equities, and no bullion, is that in a market sell-off, they can go down with everything else. I know people who were managing gold funds who had a very difficult time in 2008 despite the fact that the Gold Price was up. As we saw, gold mining companies were decimated. Many of those equities were down by 50% to 90% in 2008, and the Gold Price was actually up.

TGR: So is the combination of physical and equities a kind of a hedge against each other?

Chris Potter: I wouldn’t characterize it as a hedge. I would just say that it gives you a greater chance of participating in a rising gold market under various market scenarios.

TGR: As I understand it, you consider the Canadian market somewhat less efficient than the US market, thus making it easier to uncover attractively valued companies. What do you think accounts for the discrepancy, and is it specific to small caps or also true of large caps?

Chris Potter: It’s really true of both large caps and small but it’s not a permanent discrepancy. It’s more of a lag. What I mean is that US investors take a lot longer to recognize and buy high quality Canadian companies than US listed ones. I used to be concerned that this lag would somehow be arbitraged away, but I’ve been doing this now for 12 or 13 years, and it has not.

There are a lot of reasons behind that. For one thing, there seems to be an apathy or ignorance on the part of US investors about almost everything Canadian. There’s also a perception that the Canadian securities laws are lax, that its investment community is run by mining promoters, and that US investors won’t get a fair shake up there. While there are certainly landmines to look out for when investing in Canada, they are no more dangerous than those in the US

To characterize the entire Canadian investment scene as corrupt because of the Vancouver mining community and the Bre-X Scandal in the late ’90s ignores the fact that the US has had plenty of its own investment scandals such as Enron and a banking system that perpetrated the greatest financial fraud in history this past decade.

But I can’t tell you all of the reasons for the valuation lag that I continue to see between US and Canadian companies.

TGR: Thanks so much for your time, Chris. This has been great.

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Source:21st Century Alchemy

Squinting at the latest gold news from China, both official and private…

CHINA’S LATEST SLEW of positive data "raises the prospect" of Beijing tightening its easy money and fiscal policies, or so the newswires claim, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.

Currency strategist Steven Barrow at Standard Bank adds that China could be more significant for global liquidity than the United States, too.

Because the Fed’s asset pile is nothing next to the People’s Bank’s hoard of cash, he says. So "the Fed’s grip on the [easy-money] punchbowl is not as firm as the market might think," as shown by Barrow’s chart below.

The upshot for gold investors? Given that China’s foreign reserves are at least 50% held in US Treasuries, dollars and government-backed agency bonds…and given that gold has risen four-fold vs. the greenback inside 10 years…and seeing how the gold market is currently spooked by a whiff of improving US data, and the tang of non-zero Dollar rates it might imply…it might be worth a look.

So let’s squint through our telescope…5,049 miles distant.

Since the start of 2000, China’s official gold reserves have grown by 167% to 1,054 tonnes, now the world’s fifth largest central-bank hoard. That contrasts with the US Treasury sitting pat at 8,133 tonnes (the world’s largest single hoard) and Western European banks selling around one-fifth of their "legacy" holdings so far this decade (now down below 12,016 tonnes).

Beijing’s style of reporting on gold also contrasts with Western announcements, made over the last 10 years within the precepts of the Central Bank Gold Agreement first signed in Sept. 1999 and renewed again this autumn. The CBGA sets a pre-declared sales ceiling of 400 tonnes per year, and also includes the International Monetary Fund’s 403-tonne divestment (now half done thanks to the Reserve Bank of India buying 200 tonnes of IMF in October). Whereas the word "secretive" doesn’t begin to describe China’s official gold dealings.

The People’s Bank only reports changes to its gold holdings occasionally and erratically. Pace the World Gold Council’s numbers:

• In 1981 China had 395 tonnes;
• End-2001 that moved to 500.8 tonnes;
• End-2002 it rose to 600 tonnes;
• April 2009 saw China announce it held 1054 tonnes.

This spring’s announcement from Hu Xiaolian of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange referred to buying since 2003, she said. The actual news apparently came due to an accounting shift, out of SAFE and into People’s Bank reserves. That was significant in itself, perhaps, because it moved the 75% increase in gold bullion holdings from sovereign wealth management to central-bank ballast.

So on hearing the news, "China’s announcement signals a broader shift in central banks’ attitude towards gold," said Philip Klapwijk, chairman of the world-leading GFMS precious metals consultancy. "[This is] reigniting gold’s relevance as a monetary asset," agreed Suki Cooper, gold analyst at Barclays Capital.

But was it really the big story? April’s announcement took gold to around 1.6% of China’s foreign currency reserves. Which was in fact lower than the 2003 level of 2%, courtesy of the 7-fold growth in China’s foreign currency hoard…now around $2 trillion, up from $159bn at start-2000.

Bear that slippage in mind below…and bear in mind that the real Chinese demand story, both comparatively and across the global gold market, continues to be private consumption.

Basis the GFMS consultancy’s data, Chinese households spent more on gold jewelry and physical investment during the third quarter of ‘09 than during all of full-year 2005. Spending a total of US$3.7 billion on the metal, Chinese consumers confirmed their world-beating demand for 2009-to-date, overtaking Indian households as the world’s No.1 buyers.

Considering that jewelry taxes were only relaxed in 2002, and investment was allowed only from 2005, that’s some move to now top the table, even for the world’s most populous nation. And on our analysis here at BullionVault – based on World Bank estimates and GFMS figures – private mainland gold demand now equals some 2.0% of China’s famously massive household savings, up from 1.0% ten years ago…and even as annual household savings have more than trebled.

Most critically, private mainland demand over the last five years has been almost four times what the People’s Bank acquired from 2003-2009, piling up a massive 1775 tonnes in private hands. Cumulative buying rose 16% by value in the first 9 months of this year versus the same period in ‘08. But how much Beijing’s easy-money and fiscal stimulus is to thank – rather than cultural trust in gold and quasi-religious auspicion, both polished by private wealth accumulation – who can say…?

(Adornment and investment motives, as an aside, are more difficult to separate in the East than here in the West. Hence the catch-all "investment jewelry" referred to by Wall Street and City analysts looking at Indian and Asian gold.)

Back at the People’s Bank – which employs fewer staff per 100,000 of population than anyone else by the way, down at 0.19 compared to the Fed’s 19.9 and Russia’s staggering 71.2 according to the Economist this week – official opinion on gold is divided. What the European and North American financial pages typically see as a communist monolith in fact contains (and gives voice to) a diverse and often controversial set of views. But three aims seem clear:

1. Diversification: Beijing’s wonks don’t need to read the Journal of Portfolio Management to know gold’s quadrupled vs. USD, Yen, Sterling, CHF (and Yuan) and trebled vs. Euro since 2000;
2. Domestic crowd-pleasing: See household demand above, and set next to the Reserve Bank of India buying 200 tonnes from the IMF…just as private Indian households slow their gold hoarding in the face of relentlessly higher prices;
3. Economic prestige: The golden rule (He who has the gold etc) will suit even Beijing’s longest long-term thinkers. The United States ended WWII with more than 21,000 tonnes of gold, some 70% of total monetary metal. Dollar rule came as a direct result. So if the Dollar’s now toast, and power is truly shifting across the Pacific, the big picture would demand a big pile of bullion.

That’s why (or so we guess) State Council advisor Ji Xiaonan believes Beijing should start investing in at least 1,000 tonnes of gold per year for its official reserves. Claiming to have led an expert ‘task force’ on the matter last year, "We suggested that China’s gold reserves should reach 6,000 tons in the next 3-5 years and perhaps 10,000 tons in 8-10 years," the China Youth Daily quoted Ji in late November. Yet the Western media, typically, misread that quote, saying "That is in line with many officials’ view that China should decrease the proportion of its $2 trillion foreign exchange reserves held in Dollar-linked investments and raise its gold holdings to diversify its portfolio."

Not quite. Because for central banks, gold is a politically-charged asset, not simply a portfolio hedge. "Germany in 1944 could buy materials during the war only with gold," as Alan Greenspan noted in 1999. "Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody." And look at the numbers Ji quoted – 6,000 tonnes would take China way above Germany. 10,000 would trump Washington.

Gold is a safe haven for all investors because there is "no violation of contract" noted Zhang Bingnan, a senior member of the China Gold Association, to Reuters at the Shanghai Gold Conference last week. "Gold is the only non-credit product in the financial market." These attributes only stand out more clearly for central bank policy wonks and long-term planners hoping to keep control of the fastest-growing economy on earth.

Still, the People’s Bank can’t avoid T-bonds entirely, of course, even if it is cutting its agency holdings. There’s simply not enough gold in the world, and too many Dollars, for that. That’s why "We hate you guys," as Luo Ping, a director-general at the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) complained on a visit to New York in February.

"Once you start issuing $1-$2 trillion…we know the Dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys, but there is nothing much we can do."

One thing Chinese officials can do – if they’re to try and keep pace with private gold demand, and anchor the nation’s money reserves with gold – is to buy directly from the minehead. That was how South Africa built its forex reserves during apartheid sanctions in the late 20th century. Back then, South Africa was the world’s No.1 mining producer. It just so happens that China is today.

"It’s cheaper for us to Buy Gold from the Chinese market," said an un-named People’s Bank official to Western journalists last month, "but it doesn’t help diversify our huge foreign exchange reserves. Even if China bought half the world’s annual gold supply, it would only cost a few tens of billions of dollars, which is tiny compared to China’s huge reserves."

"Even if it’s sold at a market price, we should still buy," counters Xia Bin, head of a key Beijing think tank advising the State Council cabinet (and also making plain that this is his personal view).

"India’s okay with it, why shouldn’t we be? What’s the use for so many dollars, whose purchasing power is weakening anyway? With so many foreign reserves in hand, I think China should buy, without doubt."

Either way, "China has the scope to step up gold purchases but should take a long-term approach, avoiding the open market," says Zhang of the China Gold Association. "If we adopt a too aggressive and rash manner, it is not practical." Because China-inspired surges in the gold price would only work to make buying gold more expensive, as the recent case of India’s 200-tonne purchase makes plain.

India’s move was "probably the most remarkable event in the gold market since the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) was announced in late September 1999," according to Matt Turner at the VM Group, writing in the latest Yellow Book. Glance at November’s price chart and you’ve got to agree, at least short term. Gold cut a straight line from $1045 to $1226 an ounce.

Yes, it’s come down sharply from there. But that’s perfect for price-conscious consumers getting set for January’s New Year celebrations…and it’s just the thing for long-term strategic planners wanting to build their hoard.

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Source:China & Gold: The Big Story

The IMF sold 200 tonnes of gold to India last month. A new announcement is due…

WE HAVE BEEN prepared for this for so long now, writes Julian Phillips at GoldForecaster.

The much-expected International Monetary Fund’s gold sales had been a threat to the Gold Price for years. But now the clouds of speculation are being blown away and reality is presenting itself in a way never expected.

Part of this has been the expectation that the IMF gold sales would be dragged out over a long period. But as we have been telling subscribers for an equally long period, we did not think this would be the case, because the purpose of the sale was to maximize the proceeds and quickly. Now with India taking 200 tonnes of the 403.3 tonnes, our position has been verified.

The announcement of the sale of 200 of the 403.3 tonnes of gold at an average price of $1045 is, we believe, the first of a minimum of two announcements that will see the 403.3 tonnes completely sold.

The Reserve Bank of India said the purchase was an official sector off-market transaction. The transaction, which is being settled now, involved daily sales, phased over a two-week period during October 19-30, with each daily sale conducted at a price set on the basis of market prices prevailing that day.

The Reserve Bank of India may buy more gold from the International Monetary Fund if it offers to sell the precious metal, a senior finance ministry official said.

The total sales proceeds are equivalent to $6.7 billion. Payment is expected to be in major currencies that make up the SDR. Please note that it will not be made in just the US Dollar.

The sales are establishing a good short-term average price, so as not to leave the IMF or India open to the accusation of selling too low or too high. Inside India, gold buyers across the country have to be made aware that their central bank feels these to be good prices. We expect a pick-up in Indian retail buying because of this consequential feeling of security in Buying Gold at these prices.

The RBI says it will buy more "if [the IMF] offers to sell the gold". So either the IMF is selling the gold in chunks (and not the whole amount to anybody), or perhaps offering it to a few central banks. Hence, the Reserve Bank of India is waiting to see it the offers to others are taken up. If they are not then it will pick up the refused amount. Perhaps they will take the entire 403.3 tonnes.

If the amounts are refused by other central banks, it seems unlikely that the public will hear of these refusals. So we expect either another announcement saying India has bought the balance of 203.3 tonnes, in addition to the first tranche of 200 tonnes, or that another central bank (China, Russia…?) has bought the balance.

Either way, any concurrent/consequential sales being made by the IMF are likely to be announced very soon. And there seems little point to a sale being made anonymously now that the India purchase has been announced. The cat is out of the bag. Add to this the fact that central banks are Buying Gold now, turning the market tide that for more than 25 years had seen them as net sellers year-on-year. Officially, publicly, they are buyers now.

Most people expected China or Russia to be the IMF’s first buyers, because they have been Buying Gold in the open market for years now. The announcement that India has bought so much and is prepared to buy more now enlarges the list of central bank buyers. This action speaks far louder than words. Since then Sri Lanka has said it is Buying Gold for its reserves (although only a guessed amount of 5.3 tonnes). Who next?

Gold has a firm place in the monetary system,[as a reserve asset, not a means of exchange] in the face of an unstable monetary system, that is still decaying. This purchase expresses that sentiment, at central bank level.

The shape of market demand will and is already broadening to include major institutions. Their appetite has a huge capacity, so traditional gold demand may well be pushed to one side as they buy what they want. This will be at current or higher and possibly much higher prices.

Ready to Buy  Gold…?

Source:India's Shiny New Gold

The price of Gold just hit a new record high against the world’s top 10 currencies…

GOLD didn’t only break new Dollar highs last week.

Jumping to 8-month highs against the Euro, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar, it also took out fresh records versus the Indian Rupee and Chinese Yuan.

And more critically still, gold broke new ground against the world’s major currencies en masse. Critically as in critical.

Buying 200 tonnes of metal from the IMF, the Reserve Bank of India sent gold to new highs in terms of all the money that counts at the start of November.

Weighted against the world’s top 10 currencies by GDP, the price of gold broke its previous high on Wednesday this week. Shown as a percentage change since Jan. 2000 above, BullionVault’s Global Gold Index does indeed lag the Dollar price (244% vs. 289% to date), but it’s clearly beaten all other asset classes so far this decade.

Friday’s news that America’s job-loss recovery is worsening then confirmed the new record, peeping just above the previous hit set in Feb. of this year.

And given what India’s move says about Dollar diversification (that a lump of metal yielding zero and trading at all-time record highs also beats holding Euros, Yen, Yuan, Sterling, Reals, Loonies, Roubles and Pesos…), gold’s return to central-bank bids might be a long way from finished.

Ten years ago, nobody wanted it. Least of all those central banks in Europe holding the most but about to launch a new currency – one lacking any sovereign-government backing, let alone a link to Gold Bullion.

By the time they stopped selling gold amid the financial crisis wrought by their last flirtation with record-low returns to cash, the rising powers of China, India and Russia – moving from fifth, ninth and twelfth to 4th, 8th and 10th in terms of global GDP respectively – had already begun hoarding metal themselves.

Only now, the United States, Japan and Europe are holding rates at fresh record lows as near to zero as damn it. If we were in the business of speculating on the future path of Gold Prices, we’d guess that the official bid for gold, let alone private-sector demand, looks likely to hold strong from here.

Ready to Buy  Gold…?

Source:Global Gold Index: New Record High

How the Reserve Bank of India’s 200-tonne IMF gold purchase contrasts with private Indian dealing…

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Source:India Buys Gold; Indians Don't