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As soaring Gold Prices show, the US president has less control of the economy than you might think…

LISTENING to Trader Tracks editor Roger Wiegand talk about market conditions and precious metals is like listening to your favorite uncle tell stories at Thanksgiving, says Brian Slyvester at The Gold Report.

The difference is, Roger Wiegand’s stories are a lot more likely to make you money! And here, in this interview with The Gold Report, Roger offers up his view of the Gold Investment market, plus his tips on picking strong producer stocks…

The Gold Report: In a recent edition of Trader Tracks you quoted a former Nixon speechwriter who said, "Economics should never be treated as a science. Its claims are not falsifiable, which is why economists can disagree so violently among themselves. Economics is a branch of anthropology and psychology…a moral discipline." Do you believe that’s true?

Roger Wiegand: I definitely agree with that. I think there’s more psychology in economics than many people realize. You can see that with the current economic reports coming out of Washington and New York. It’s obvious to intelligent people who follow these things that there’s a lot of manipulation going on in economics, in the stock market and in politics. It is often effective if it’s very timely. There’s no question that psychology plays a major role in economics.

TGR: Further to the point, do you believe the American public is somewhat conditioned to believe that economics is a science and thus place too much faith in it?

Roger Wiegand: I think that could be true. I really believe that 80%–90% of the American public is regularly sold a bill of goods by the Wall Street media from New York and Washington. It just keeps coming day after day and, after awhile, it wears them out. I think the majority of Americans still believe a lot of this information. From my point of view, a good portion of it is just nonsense.

TGR: If you could speak directly to the public and tell them what you believe they should know, what would you tell them?

Roger Wiegand: Well, I would say that the US president is not really the man in charge. The people who are in charge of world economics, world currencies, governments and corporations are a shadow political group that has a great deal of power. Presidents in the US are just puppets. They’re selected for their ability to do what they’re told. Congress is basically just a tool for these corporations and outsiders to manipulate the rules to get what they want. I think that’s obvious when you look at what’s happened with all the offshoring of American jobs. The issue that’s got a lot of people disturbed right now is the open border between Mexico and the United States. That exists because corporations want cheap labor. And there are obviously a lot of people involved in the Mexican drug trade. There’s a sheriff in Arizona who said that even members of Congress are involved. Until the teeth are taken out of pharmaceutical economics, these things are going to continue.

Recently it’s become much worse because of what’s happened with the global banks and derivatives market. That’s what caused the Lehman Brothers collapse and took down the global economy. To make it worse, then-Treasury Secretary Henry (Hank) Paulson basically took government taxpayer money and gave it to the banks. He conjectured that, if we didn’t, the global financial system would implode. Quite frankly, I think it would’ve been better if we had taken our medicine and just moved on. But what’s happened now is that 90% of the toxic debt in those banks remains in those banks. They’ve taken it off balance sheets and put it into other corporations or partnerships (i.e., offshored it). They’re just holding the money given to them by the US government earning bond interest. They’re not making loans to improve the economy.

TGR: Do you believe US economic policy will ultimately lead to the demise of the US Dollar?

Roger Wiegand: It’s hard to say. These things take years and they happen slowly. Our three- to five-year forecast for the US Dollar is 46 on the Dollar Index. One of our better analyst friends, whom you’ve interviewed before, pegs it at 40. We’re now at 82 or 82.5. Eighty is a magnetic number so to speak for the Dollar. We expect it to stay there for two or three months, and then gradually drift lower. But is the Dollar going to go away? I’m not so sure. It’s going to diminish in value in fits and spurts. Other currencies will replace the Dollar to some extent; but, considering that the USD covers about 85% of all reserve currencies, I think it’s doubtful it will go away. They may try backing it by gold, silver or other precious metals; but it would take so much in precious metals to give it even a marginal backing that it’s difficult to imagine.

For people buying and selling shares in our business, the biggest thing to watch for is the bond markets. That’s the Achilles heel of the worldwide credit system. The stock market is big but it’s peanuts compared to bonds. Bonds are 70 times larger than stocks. The bond market today is in very big trouble.

TGR: Could you explain that further?

Roger Wiegand: At this point, Fed Chairman Bernanke can’t find buyers for his bonds; so he’s got to print bonds and buy them back himself. Recently, the Fed had a bond auction. It was said that 30% of the offering went to indirect buyers (meaning Bernanke bought the stuff back himself). We’ve seen some other auctions where they’ve had to buy back as much as 60%. In our view, that’s the beginning of the end because the other American bond and bill buyers are backing away.

TGR: You put quite a smattering of different quotes in your newsletter and some are quite grim. You had a couple from accounts of when hyperinflation plagued Germany’s Weimar Republic in the 1920s. Why do you put quotes like that into Trader Tracks?

Roger Wiegand: I’ve been accused of scaring people. But I don’t really do that. I just want them to understand what kind of situation we’re facing. When I speak at conferences, I explain that, while things look pretty nasty right now – and they do look comparatively grim to Germany in the early 1920s and America in the 1930s – if you look at what’s available to us today in terms of trading and investing, I think we’ve got an opportunity that we won’t see again for many, many years. I’m speaking specifically about gold and silver and shorting these major stock markets. While some of these quotes are pretty upsetting – frightening even – it’s merely to get your attention so you’ll get off your duff and do something. A lot of people we talk to at conferences understand and agree, but they don’t do anything. That’s not going to work anymore.

TGR: What are some of those opportunities, Roger?

Roger Wiegand: I’ve got three favorites that I trade for myself. I trade gold spreads, silver spreads and soybean spreads. Last year, on those three kinds of trades, I made 95%. They don’t require a lot of time, which is good, because I’m very busy writing my letter and helping my readers. I’m one of the few newsletter writers who will answer emails from subscribers when they get into trouble on a trade or are looking for some ideas about an opportunity. Our newsletter subscription price is higher than others, but we like to think we give good value because many of our traders can make the subscription cost back on just one or two trades.

TGR: Probably upwards of 80% of the stocks you list in your newsletters are junior Gold Mining and silver plays. The majority are juniors. What makes you believe these are places that investors should put their money?

Roger Wiegand: Let’s look at history. From 1979 to 1981, the last time we had a major gold rally to $850, silver went up to $50. If you picked 20 good juniors, probably half would fail. Another 25% would make some money. But there’s probably three to five that would be tremendous homeruns, like 1,000% or 2,000%. Of course, none of us really knows when that big blowoff is coming. Also, we can’t know which ones are going to be the best. I’m constantly sifting through companies, trying to take out the ones that just sit there and don’t move. It may be a good company; but, if it’s not going to move what good is it?

TGR: Do you have a trading philosophy?

Roger Wiegand: We encourage people to trade on the calendar: ‘Sell in May and go away’ and on the September-October selling event, which is quite common. The precious metals stocks, the juniors in particular, have been tied to the big markets. Over the past few months, we can see a separation. We can see now that the HUI, XAU and GDX are all going on their merry ways – away from the inverse trade of the Dollar and from some of the big, mainstream stock indexes. We’ve been waiting for this. To me, it indicates that there’s going to be a major divergence or breakout in gold, silver and the related stocks.

TGR: How high is that going to take gold this fall?

Roger Wiegand: This fall we’re looking at $1325 as a minimum goal on the December Gold Futures, which expire after Thanksgiving. We’re in an uptrend at the moment, but I think you’ll see a little leveling off and some light selling in August. After that, you’ll see a rebound. Normally, on the calendar between the last week of August all the way to April or May, we see a big rally in gold and silver with some intermediate profit-taking corrections. The 10-year trend has been solidly up. There’s no question that we’re going to have a good fall season.

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Source:Say, Who's In Charge Round Here?

Ways to invest in precious metals AsiaOne For example, the purest mass-produced gold coins are those of the Canadian Gold Maple Leaf series, which go up to 99.999 per cent purity. … and more »

Source:Ways to invest in precious metals – AsiaOne

The outlook for Gold Investing, courtesy of a leading US gold-fund manager…

THE OUTLOOK for Gold Investing looks, well, golden to Joe Foster – precious metals expert and portfolio manager for Van Eck Global, writes Lara Crigger at Hard Assets Investor.

Foster joined Van Eck in 1996, and currently serves as lead team investment manager for the company’s flagship mutual fund, the International Investors Gold Fund. He is also a team investment manager for the company’s Global Hard Assets Fund and VIP Global Hard Assets Fund, and acts as a consultant for the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF.

Here, Foster chats with us about his thoughts on gold, including the role it plays in a portfolio, how much investors should hold, and where the yellow metal is headed next.

Hard Assets Investor: What role should gold play in an investor’s portfolio? Is it a source of profit, insurance or both?

Roy Foster: I think that, No.1, Gold Investment should be thought of as a form of insurance in times of financial stress. Gold’s a great portfolio diversifier, because it has a very, very low correlation with other asset classes. So when you add a little bit of gold to the portfolio, it gives the portfolio better risk-adjusted returns in the long term.

Then on top of that, it is a hedge against financial stress, whether it’s inflation or deflation or some sort of credit crisis or currency turmoil. Gold reacts to all of that stuff, and can enhance performance during those times of volatility.

HAI: So in that case, how much gold should investors hold in their portfolios?

Roy Foster: Gold should never be the centerpiece of a portfolio; it’s more of an add-on. Personally, I would recommend 5-10 percent in gold or gold shares. I give a range because when investors have a feeling that the financial risk is going to be elevated in the future, which I believe it is now, then they’d want to be at the higher end of the range. Then when you see the economy and the credit market start to perform properly, then you might want to peel back to the lower end of the range.

HAI: Should investors only hold gold in bullion form, or are other vehicles, such as ETFs or futures, OK too?

Roy Foster: My favorite allocation would be a combination of gold and gold shares. So for gold itself, either physical gold or in Gold ETFs is fine. For gold shares, gold mining companies can be a risky investment, so I think you’re better off with an experienced portfolio manager and buying into a gold equity fund.

I have preferences for gold shares in a gold bull market. If you’re carrying the right gold shares in your portfolio, you should be able to outperform the Gold Price. So as long we have an outlook for higher Gold Prices going forward, I thing gold shares are the best way to play it.

Of course, I’m being sort of cautious. We have seen throughout this bull market periods of time when gold has outperformed gold shares, so I’m a big believer of diversification within the gold universe. You get better diversification when you have a mix of gold and gold shares.

HAI: Where do you see the price of gold going in the next few years?

Roy Foster: In the near term, as we move into 2011, I think we’ll see gold make new highs above the $1265/oz high that we saw back in June. In the longer term, there’s no easy way out of the mess that we have with the credit markets and the debt that the government is taking on and so on. So in certain scenarios, I could see gold trending toward $2000 an ounce in the next three to five years.

HAI: Is it just macroeconomic factors that would be pushing this up or is there a supply and demand imbalance here as well?

Roy Foster: It would be investment demand. This is investors in genuine fear for their wealth.

We just saw that the Fed is going to replenish their supply of certain US debt going forward, and they may increase that activity going forward, depending on what the economy does. What it amounts to is printing money. They’re devaluing the US currency. When investors see this happening, they look for a sound currency and that’s the role that gold plays in this environment. When the leading reserve currency, which is the US Dollar, is mismanaged, people look to gold as a safe-haven currency.

HAI: In this scenario, then, do you see that we’ll end up with hyperinflation, deflation or even stagflation in the future?

Roy Foster: Well I think we’re going through a period of deflation. We’re in the midst of a deflationary credit contraction right now, and I think those dynamics will dominate the market for another year or two.

But once the credit markets start to function normally again and the velocity of money picks up, then I think we have a very real danger of having an inflationary cycle. If it were to get out of hand – if the Fed’s policies remain too easy for too long – then we could have a cycle like we saw in the ’70s, with double-digit inflation.

HAI: So I’d gather that you don’t think the Euro-gold trade is over quite yet, either.

Roy Foster: in the near term, with the European situation, they’ve put a band-aid on it for now. The markets have settled down and they’re not as concerned about the Euro.

But ultimately, I think the finances of Greece are almost impossible to cure without some sort of restructuring or default. At best, they’re just buying time. When that restructuring finally occurs, then I think the markets will be unsettled.

So things have settled down for now, but by no means have we seen the end of it. That’s another reason we are bullish in the long-term towards gold. The problems with fiscal and monetary qualities aren’t just in the US; they’re in Europe and Japan. The major economies of the world are in serious financial straits.

HAI: We’re on the cusp of a seasonal high point for gold, as buyers worldwide start purchasing jewelry for Diwali and Christmas and other holidays. How do you think this will affect prices in the short- to midterm?

Roy Foster: That’s why I said earlier that I think the world will trend toward new highs as we move into 2011. If jewelry demand will pick up in the fall, like it usually does, then that will provide a base for gold to build on. Then if you layer in some of these macroeconomic financial stresses that seem to pop up periodically, that will be the catalyst to really drive gold to a new level.

I can see it trending toward $1300 an ounce, but it all depends on what’s going on in the market. It’s something that’s impossible to predict, but I could see it trending to that level, certainly.

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Precious Metal Coins in Stephenson's August 20 Auction Are on Investors' Radar Newswire Today (press release) When Wall Street heads south, investors head straight to precious metals – especially silver and gold coins like the ones to be auctioned by Stephenson's … and more »

Source:Precious Metal Coins in Stephenson's August 20 Auction Are on Investors' Radar – Newswire Today (press release)

Why this leading "hard assets" manager says to raise your precious metals’ exposure…

WITH MORE THAN 45 years’ experience in portfolio management, John Embry has simultaneously researched the gold sector for 30-plus of those years.

Embry joined Sprott Asset Management in 2003, after 15 years as vice-president of equities at RBC Global Investment. Here he speaks to The Gold Report about how the "extraordinarily painful" economic times ahead will ultimately lead to a new currency backed by, of course, gold…

The Gold Report: We recently interviewed John Williams of ShadowStats, who noted that the M3 money-supply measure has had its sharpest ever year-over-year decline. He concluded that we will see a deepening recession with inflation/hyperinflation afterward. You are in the camp that believes hyperinflation will occur first, and then deflation will wipe out the remaining debt. What do you see in the numbers to indicate that?

John Embry: Well, I think I’m being misunderstood because I think we are in a highly deflationary situation as we speak. I don’t really disagree with Williams. The basic problem is that the amount of debt in the system is extraordinarily deflationary. The only way to combat it without having the hard 1930s-style deflation is to print more money. The risk of doing that is hyperinflation. I think they will opt for that, but I’m not 100% convinced the economy will go that way. The economy could very well go Bob Prechter’s way (Elliott Wave International) and go into a hard deflation, but not without a huge effort from the authorities in the United States to prevent it.

TGR: Let’s go down the path where we reduce quantitative easing and start seeing inflation that ultimately becomes hyperinflation. Does quantitative easing ever pay off that debt, or do we go into hyperinflation and still default on the debt?

John Embry: In the end you will default on the debt. If you go back and look at any hyperinflation situation in history, the currency and the debt that’s denominated in the currency get destroyed. I would not do that. I would take the pain. I agree with Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, who said that you’ve got to start reining things in. Better to take some pain now than the even worse pain caused by the total social disruption that hyperinflation creates.

TGR: Are we in a situation where, if we really implemented austerity measures, we could avoid debt default and/or inflation? Or are we just too far down the line?

John Embry: I think we’re way too far down the line. If you were to go into a real austerity program in the United States by raising taxes, cutting spending and having interest rates that reflect the reality of the situation, you would go into a hard deflationary depression. I don’t see an alternative. I’ve said many times that the middle ground has long since been lost. We’ve just had the greatest credit cycle in history, and as a result we’re going to pay a huge, huge price for it.

TGR: But if the austerity program would throw us into a deflationary depression, then more quantitative easing would ultimately end in a deflationary depression.

John Embry: In the end you will end up with a new currency system. And those who invest in the right assets will come out intact at the other end. Those who invest in paper assets of any description will be wiped out.

TGR: That leads into our next question. In your recent column in Investor’s Digest you said Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke "knows full well that it is his monetary policy featuring zero-based interest rates for the world’s reserve currency and profligacy of his own government that are fueling the desire to own gold." If Mr. Bernanke were replaced by John Embry, what changes to US economic policy would be made?

John Embry: I sort of pre-empted the question by suggesting I would be inclined to take the pain now. But, if John Embry had been determining monetary policy for the last 15 to 20 years, we would have never been in this position. As I have said before, I believe very strongly in Austrian economics. You’ve got to rein in the credit cycle early if it’s getting out of control, or you’re going to end up exactly where we are now. I do not see a solution that isn’t extraordinarily painful.

TGR: Are you referring just to the US or is Canada, where you are, going to see the same painful situation?

John Embry: That’s a very good question because there’s a lot of hubris up here in Canada. We think we’re immune because we have resources and we’ve done a better job with our banking system, etc. But if the United States gets into deep difficulty, we get into deep difficulty because our economies are so closely aligned. Now, we may not get in as much trouble because we have more resources, we have a lot less people and our finances are in better shape. But the fact is the whole Western world will be seriously impacted by what happens in the United States. The United States is the linchpin of the entire Western world.

TGR: Will the impact be felt in the Eastern countries?

John Embry: Yes, I think the impact will be felt there, too. I believe China will be the emerging power in the next century, and I’ve believed that for a long time. But before the United States became the emerging power in the previous century, they went through a depression followed by a World War. And China’s not just going to glide through this without difficulty. If the US were to get into major difficulty, China would have a real economic setback. It wouldn’t be for the long term, but the short term could turn very ugly.

TGR: To what extent will China incur economic pain?

John Embry: The problem with the Chinese is that the Communist government basically has to provide improved living standards for China’s massive population. If they don’t do that, I think you will see incredible unrest. I foresee that happening if this thing goes in the direction that it appears headed.

TGR: What do you make of reports from China on the pending real estate bubble and the Chinese government telling its citizens to Buy Gold?

John Embry: I think there is a huge real estate bubble in China. I saw some statistics and I can’t even remember the number of homes that were apparently not inhabited. But it was massive. I find it fascinating that the Chinese government is telling the public to go to gold, which is the exact opposite strategy that’s being followed in the Western world. I think they realize that this is probably the safest place for their people to be invested in the coming period. The Chinese are very smart. I think, quite frankly, that in the end the Chinese will back their currency with gold.

TGR: You mentioned that we were ultimately going to get a new currency system. Would it be just the Chinese going to a Gold Standard, or would it be the world?

John Embry: I think that if we get a new currency, which I firmly believe we will before this is all said and done, I think gold will be a component of the new currency. You’ve seen the Chinese on occasion mention the idea of a kind of Special Drawing Right (SDR, an IMF currency unit) backed by a basket of currencies and gold. I believe gold will be reintroduced to the system because there will be so much bad feeling toward fiat currency. They’re not going to get away with it a second time, at least not for another 100 years.

TGR: When we start moving to a new currency that you say will be backed in part by gold, won’t almost all currencies have to hyperinflate and become devalued because there’s just not that much gold being mined?

John Embry: Oh, I think that’s in the cards. The United States might be the linchpin for the whole problem, but because of this competitive devaluation that’s going on nobody wants to have a strong currency. If the US currency is failing because of the problems we’ve discussed, there’s no question that the other currencies are going fail with it. That’s why I hold all of my assets in hard assets, be it gold, silver, oil companies – anything that’s producing something tangible.

TGR: You had an interesting interview with Mineweb recently. The headline used a quote from your interview. It reads: "If gold is not between $1500 and $2000 in the next 18 months, I’m dead wrong." What specifically would you be "dead wrong" about? The price? The timing? The underlying fundamentals?

John Embry: I would say probably the underlying fundamentals, because I think that they’re sufficiently bad that we will not be able to hold this together for another 18 months. In that event, I would see the Gold Price moving up sharply. They could conceivably keep this thing stuck together for 18 months. I just don’t believe it. If it’s not $1,500 to $2,000 by then, clearly I’m wrong in the sense that they’ve been able to allay the difficulties in the system longer than I thought. The United States is plunging back into a hard recession, if not worse. The implications of that for the Gold Price are extraordinarily bullish.

TGR: So, really it would be the timing that would be wrong…

John Embry: Yes, I guess you can’t change the fundamentals. The timing would be wrong. But at the same time my analysis of the underlying fundamentals would suggest this is getting relatively imminent. I was fascinated to see that Niall Ferguson, a brilliant historian and economist, is of the mindset that this thing is going to fall apart within two years. At least I’m in the company of intelligent people.

TGR: John, do you think it will fall apart slowly or rapidly?

John Embry: That’s a really good question and Ferguson addressed that. He thinks it will come quickly and so do I. I have a friend who thinks if you’re not positioned the right way financially, one day the curtain’s going to come down, and when it goes back up, you’re not going to be able to alter your position. That means you better own the right stuff going in.

TGR: You were managing funds with gold holdings long before the era of $1.5 trillion deficits and sovereign debt issues in Europe. How has your strategy for asset management changed over the last decade, and more specifically, pre-2008 versus post-2008?

John Embry: That’s a very good question. I’m working here with my partner Eric Sprott. I’m not managing money on a day-to-day basis anymore. I’m just working on strategy and the gold scene. But I know that the long side of Eric’s hedge fund has gone almost exclusively to precious metals, and he’s short housing, banking and all of those industries. Clearly this is something that’s evolved. I mean we have gone more and more in that direction as we’ve become more and more sure of our point of view.

I recently read Michael Lewis’s The Big Short, which I found fascinating because the fellows who figured out that subprime mortgages were going to be a major problem were in such a minority that their clients were turning on them almost until the whole thing broke. I feel much the same way today about the public’s view on the economy. Everybody is being told things are fine and that the economy is going to return to normal and growth will continue. I think that underlying assumption is dead wrong.

TGR: In reading your recent interviews and columns, one thing that comes through quite plainly is the passion behind your arguments that the public is being duped and not being told that they should own gold. Why are you so passionate about what’s happening?

John Embry: I appreciate your saying that because I am. I think it’s really important to tell the public the truth if you really believe that this is what’s going on and you want them to protect themselves. I think the public is getting horrible advice from a lot of financial establishments. It’s amazing. I can draw parallels to when the subprime thing blew up. It was astounding to me that people thought housing prices in the United States would rise forever. I mean housing prices are related to underlying income. They were so far out of line that it had to crash.

TGR: What’s your view of Buying Silver compared to gold in this economic environment?

John Embry: I like it better, believe it or not, as much as I love gold for the simple reason that there’s so much less aboveground inventory in silver. Unlike gold, silver gets consumed at a reasonably rapid clip because of its medical and industrial uses. The current price ratio of gold to silver is about 65 to 1. Historically, it has been as low as 15 to 1. As the whole precious metal cycle really starts to lift off again, I suspect that the silver ratio is going to fall fairly significantly from 65. If that happens, clearly you’re going to have a better percentage gain in silver than you are in gold. I wouldn’t have all my money in silver,but I would certainly have solid exposure.

TGR: Will silver equities also have the opportunities for five and ten baggers?

John Embry: Oh, for sure because there are a lot more gold stocks. Silver is a pretty scarce element in the earth’s crust and it’s pretty hard to find. There are not a lot of silver stocks. Of the silver stocks that I like, only one has outperformed silver over the last while. To me that’s a great silver stock, because they can control their costs through the approach they have.

TGR: If the Silver Price has a rapid rise, are any of the miners going to outperform silver in the future?

John Embry: Yes, I think they will. I mean both the gold and the silver stocks are miles behind the bullion. That reflects the negative sentiment in the whole area.

TGR: Why are there negative sentiments?

John Embry: It totally baffles me in the sense that the fundamentals couldn’t be more compelling. But at the same time that isn’t what the public is being told by the financial establishment. Just the other day The Economist featured an article on the front page with the question, "Has Gold Topped?" It was the standard questionable statistics, dubious conclusions, etc. But if you actually read it closely, you could have drawn the exact opposite conclusion and become a roaring gold bull. Essentially, the public doesn’t know a lot about it and it’s not their fault. Nobody’s telling them. To me, that isn’t an accident. This is being orchestrated. But I think it’s just about to become spectacularly unstuck.

TGR: What do you think will be the tipping point?

John Embry: If the US is lapsing back into some serious economic difficulty, there will be a sudden realization that the financial situation is hopeless. As a result they’re going to have to create so much money or take such a brutal deflationary depression that people will change their philosophy and not invest in US bonds at 2.85% for 10 years. It won’t take much money coming in the direction of gold and silver to have a significant impact.

TGR: Do you have any parting thoughts?

John Embry: My one parting thought is that people have to understand how serious this is and protect themselves. They’ve got to have some precious metals in their portfolio. If they don’t, I think they’ll rue the day they didn’t.

TGR: How much should they have?

John Embry: I used to say 5% to 10% before this mess started rolling. I’d say a minimum of 25% now.

TGR: Thank you for your time, John.

John Embry: You’re quite welcome.

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Source:Not Five or Ten, But 25% Gold